Talk the Line: Early breakdown of NFL Week 11 odds

Every Sunday night, oddsmakers drop the upcoming week’s NFL betting lines, and if you are wondering if the opening spreads look accurate, we’ve got you covered.

Each week, FOX Sports Betting Analysts Geoff Schwartz, Sam Panayotovich and Jason McIntyre will break down the opening numbers in this space and point out if they think the line is too low, too high or just right.

So, without further ado, let’s jump into their analysis for Week 11.

Bengals @ Ravens (-3.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

This line being 3.5 tells you that Vegas wants Bengals money, but the right side is the Ravens. 

The Average Joe will see that hook and be all over it. Vegas knows this and set this line anyway.

Bears @ Lions (-9.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right 

A line set above 9 is to discourage people from teasing the Lions down through seven and three. 

The Lions are better everywhere on the field, and they should easily dispatch the Bears.

Titans @ Jaguars (-6.5)

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

This is a great number by the oddsmakers. I could truly make a case for either side. I actually lean to the dog, but I would prefer +7.

Can Joshua Dobbs LEAD the Minnesota Vikings to the PLAYOFFS?

Can Joshua Dobbs LEAD the Minnesota Vikings to the PLAYOFFS?

Chargers (-3) @ Packers 

Sam Panayotovich: Just right

I continue to joke that almost every Chargers game comes down to the final minutes. After another typical Chargers result Sunday, this line is more than fair. 

Giants @ Commanders (-10)

Jason McIntyre: Too high

Sam Howell as a 10-point favorite? Washington has been favored three times this season and is 0-3 against the spread (ATS) with two outright losses (Chicago, NYG).

Raiders @ Dolphins (-10)

Geoff Schwartz: Too low

The Dolphins have dominated bad football teams, and despite the Raiders’ recent two-game winning streak, this team isn’t good. They’ve beaten the Broncos, Packers, Patriots, Giants and Jets. 

I’d take the Dolphins ASAP. They’ll win this game by at least two scores.

Is CJ Stroud making a CASE for winning MVP with the Houston Texans?

Is CJ Stroud making a CASE for winning MVP with the Houston Texans?

Cardinals @ Texans (-5)

Sam Panayotovich: Too high

The Texans are one of the best stories in football, and they’ve relished their role as an underdog. However, Houston is 0-3 ATS this season as the betting favorite.

Steelers @ Browns (-4)

Jason McIntyre: Too high

Yes, the Steelers are the luckiest team in the league. They’ve been outgained in all nine games and have a -26 points differential. 

Yes, Cleveland just rallied to beat mighty Baltimore. 

But these divisional games have “win by a field goal” written all over them.

Cowboys (-11) @ Panthers

Jason McIntyre: Too low

When the Cowboys face the dregs of the league, they roll. However, that has often happened at home. 

Don’t bring up that Arizona game — it was a long time ago.

Buccaneers @ 49ers (-10.5)

Jason McIntyre: Too low

Sure, the Bucs beat up on rookie QB Will Levis, but now they step up in class against a sleeping giant that pounded Jacksonville to remind everyone: We’re healthy; look out.

Seahawks (-2.5) @ Rams

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

I thought we’d see a 3, but the Seahawks have not played well enough to earn it. 

Seattle lost to Cincy and Baltimore and has barely beaten the Commanders, Browns and Cardinals in recent weeks. 

The Rams are coming off a bye, and McVay’s teams have played well against the Seahawks.

Jets @ Bills (-7)

Jason Mcintyre: Too high 

The Jets offense is reeling, having gone 36 straight offensive drives without a touchdown. But Buffalo is on a short week, and the teams know each other well, as the last three meetings were decided by one score. 

Divisional rematches tend to be ugly — and close.

Vikings @ Broncos (-1.5)

Geoff Schwartz: Just right

Without seeing the results of the Broncos game in Buffalo on Monday night, this number feels right. 

The Vikings are better on a neutral field, and the Broncos will be playing on a short week.

Eagles @ Chiefs (-2.5)

Sam Panayotovich: Too low

This number will bounce around the “3” all week. There will be respected groups that lay -2.5 and others that take +3.

I’ll be on the Chiefs side at under a field goal. 

Jason McIntyre is the co-host of The Herd and a FOX Sports gambling analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can find him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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