North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): Prediction, odds, picks

The No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (5-0) are 3.5-point favorites at home at Kenan Memorial Stadium against the No. 25 Miami Hurricanes (4-1) on Saturday, October 14. Both teams have productive passing attacks, with the Tar Heels 11th in passing yards per game, and the Hurricanes 23rd. 

In their last action, the Tar Heels won against the Syracuse Orange, 40-7. Last time around, the Hurricanes fell to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, with 23-20 being the final score.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between Miami and North Carolina — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica. 

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Game Information & Odds

  • When: Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET
  • Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
  • TV: ABC
  • Live boxscore on FOX Sports
North Carolina vs Miami (FL) Betting Information updated as of October 12, 2023, 10:46 AM ET.
Favorite Spread (Odds) Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Moneyline Under Moneyline
North Carolina -3.5 (-110) -182 +153 57.5 -110 -109

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Prediction

  • Pick ATS: Miami (FL) (+3.5)  
  • Pick OU: Under (57.5) 
  • Prediction: North Carolina 28, Miami (FL) 26

Oh, where to begin? I could write at least 10,000 words on last week’s debacle against Georgia Tech, but I’ll spare everyone the time and myself the angst. 

I will say this: The Hurricanes have had a lot of difficulty rebounding from their initial loss in recent years — it hasn’t mattered who the coach was. And UNC has owned the Hurricanes in recent seasons. 

Is this a new Miami? We shall see, but I’ll grab the points here, as there wouldn’t be a more “because college football” result this season than the Canes going to UNC, snapping the four-game losing streak to the Tar Heels, rebounding from last week’s debacle and handling UNC its first loss of the year. 

PICK: Miami (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL) Betting Insights

  • Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Tar Heels 30, Hurricanes 27.
  • The Tar Heels have a 64.5% chance to win this contest per the moneyline’s implied probability. The Hurricanes hold a 39.5% implied probability.
  • North Carolina has put together a 4-1-0 record against the spread this season.
  • Miami (FL) has covered three times in four matchups with a spread this season.

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): Head-to-Head

  • North Carolina has a 2-0 record against Miami (FL) in their last two matchups.
  • The two teams have gone over the point total on one occasion while sharing a split 1-1 record in their matchups against the spread.
  • Miami (FL) has been outscored by 6 points in its last two tilts versus North Carolina.

North Carolina vs. Miami (FL): 2023 Stats Comparison

  North Carolina Miami (FL)
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 36.6 (50) 39 (37)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 19 (21) 14.6 (10)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 5 (16) 8 (65)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 7 (81) 9 (38)

North Carolina 2023 Key Players

Miami (FL) 2023 Key Players

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