Michigan vs. Penn State: Prediction, odds, picks

The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (9-0) are 4.5-point favorites on the road at Beaver Stadium against the No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) on Saturday, November 11 on Big Noon Kickoff. 

Both teams have high-powered offenses, with the Wolverines fifth in points per game, and the Nittany Lions sixth. 

In their most recent game, the Wolverines won versus the Purdue Boilermakers, 41-13. Last time out, the Nittany Lions defeated the Maryland Terrapins, with 51-15 being the final score.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between Michigan and Penn State — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Michigan vs. Penn State Game Information & Odds

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
  • Location: Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
  • TV: FOX
  • Live boxscore on FOX Sports
Michigan vs Penn State Betting Information updated as of November 10, 2023, 8:45 AM ET.
Favorite Spread (Odds) Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Moneyline Under Moneyline
Michigan -4.5 (-110) -206 +170 45 -109 -111

Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction

  • Pick ATS: Penn State (+4.5)  
  • Pick OU: Over (45) 
  • Prediction: Penn State 25, Michigan 24

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

This is the first game all season in which the Wolverines are playing a team with a pulse, and I’m going to wager on Michigan starting slow. 

The Wolverines are undoubtedly an outstanding operation. Big Blue ranks third in offensive points per drive and first on defense. However, Michigan hasn’t played an offense ranked better than 53rd in efficiency. 

Penn State ranks 10th in points per drive on offense and third in points per drive on defense, so on paper, the Nittany Lions match up with UM.

This game is at Penn State, and I cannot stress this enough — Michigan has played weak teams and hasn’t come close to playing in this environment. The Nittany Lions have played Ohio State and Iowa, and both teams are better than any Michigan has played. 

There are concerns about Penn State’s inability to generate explosive plays against the Michigan defense. Still, that could be equally true of the Wolverines facing a real defense for the first time this season. 

This is why I believe a Penn State first half wager is in play. Both teams will have a physical start to the game as they figure each other out before the talent of Michigan wins out. Give me Penn State +3.5 for the first half. 

PICK: Penn State +3.5 1st half

Will Penn State hand Michigan their first loss of the season?

Will Penn State hand Michigan their first loss of the season?

Michigan vs. Penn State Betting Insights

  • Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Wolverines 25, Nittany Lions 20.
  • The Wolverines have a 67.3% chance to claim victory in this contest based on the moneyline’s implied probability. The Nittany Lions have a 37.0% implied probability.
  • Michigan has won four games against the spread this season, while failing to cover or pushing five times.
  • Penn State has covered six times in eight matchups with a spread this year.

Michigan vs. Penn State: Head-to-Head

  • Michigan holds a 2-0 record against Penn State in their last two matchups.
  • The Wolverines own a 2-0 record ATS in those games, while the two teams have gone over the total on one occasion.
  • Over their last two head-to-head matchups, Michigan has racked up 62 points, while Penn State has accumulated 34.

Michigan vs. Penn State: 2023 Stats Comparison

  Michigan Penn State
Off. Points per Game (Rank) 40.7 (6) 40.2 (7)
Def. Points per Game (Rank) 6.7 (1) 11.9 (3)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank) 6 (5) 4 (1)
Turnovers Forced (Rank) 15 (30) 20 (2)

Michigan 2023 Key Players

Penn State 2023 Key Players

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