Chris Fallica
FOX Sports Wagering Expert
“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 11 of the college football season is here, and I like several ‘dogs to bark this weekend.
I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.
RELATED: Geoff Schwartz’s Week 11 picks
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
Let’s get this thing back on track with some winners.
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 11.
Last week: 2-3 (30-40-1 season)
(All times ET Saturday)
Old Dominion @ Liberty, 1 p.m., ESPN+
The Monarchs have a chance at getting to six wins, as it needs two victories from its final three games.
Old Dominion Monarchs
ODU
Liberty Flames
LIB
Asking ODU to go to Liberty and pull an outright upset might be too much, but this is a team which lost by a field goal at James Madison, a FG to Wake Forest, six points at Marshall and four to Coastal Carolina.
The Monarchs have been a tough out all season and that should again be the case here.
PICK: Old Dominion (+13.5) to lose by fewer than 13.5 points (or win outright)
Memphis @ Charlotte, 2 p.m., ESPN+
The 49ers come in off their best offensive performance of the season, putting up 33 points and 5.9 yards per play against Tulsa.
Memphis Tigers
MEM
Charlotte 49ers
Char
That gives them hope against a Tigers defense that allows 28 points per game, including 50 and 42 in the last two weeks.
Of course, there’s a chance Charlotte can’t keep up, but I’ll take the points here.
PICK: Charlotte (+10) to lose by 10 points or fewer (or win outright)
North Carolina State @ Wake Forest, 2 p.m., CW
This is just a play against the N.C. State, which has pulled consecutive upsets in games in which it was at least a six-point underdog. Now the Wolfpack are favored, albeit slightly, over the Demon Deacons, who aren’t going to score many points.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
NCST
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
WAKE
But we’ll see how the Wolfpack offense goes this week, as quarterback MJ Morris will not play the rest of the season and will take a redshirt year. Brennan Armstrong, who started five games before Morris replaced him, will take over again.
PICK: Wake Forest (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
No. 15 Oklahoma State @ UCF, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
The Knights got their first Big 12 win last week at Cincinnati, and now they play host to the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State has won five straight, with four of those coming as underdogs, including a Bedlam upset win over Oklahoma last week.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
OKST
UCF Knights
UCF
At UCF, at Houston, vs. BYU — that’s what stands between the Cowboys and a Big 12 title game berth.
This will not be an easy game for Oklahoma State, as the Knights nearly beat OU in Norman and are a much different offense with John Rhys Plumlee at QB.
PICK: UCF (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Cincinnati @ Houston, 7 p.m., FS1 and FOX Sports App
The Big 12 wins for the Cougars were by one and two points, and even the win over UTSA was by a field goal, so when they win, it’s not like they have been comfortable victories.
Cincinnati Bearcats
CIN
Houston Cougars
HOU
The Bearcats are still in search of their first conference win and this is a good opportunity for that against another of the Big 12 newcomers. The Cincinnati offense is not a fun watch but I’m gonna hold my nose and take the ugly ‘dog.
PICK: Cincinnati (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Rice @ UTSA, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU
The Roadrunners have been a machine since QB Frank Harris returned to the lineup — five straight wins, four by at least 14 points, and they’ve scored at least 36 points in each of those game.
Rice Owls
RICE
UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA
UTSA should put a big number up on an Owls defense which has struggled against most of the better teams it has faced this year, even though it has been beaten by double digits only by Texas (37-10) and South Florida (42-29).
PICK: UTSA (-14.5) to win by more than 14.5 points
Duke @ No. 24 North Carolina, 8 p.m., ACC
The Blue Devils have QB issues and I just get the sense, in what will likely be Drake Maye’s final home game, that the Tar Heels will put up a big number, and it will be very tough for the Blue Devils to keep up.
Duke Blue Devils
DUKE
North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC
North Carolina stumbled against its last two ACC opponents, but this is a great chance for the Tar Heels to get the bad taste out of their mouths and stay alive in the chase for the ACC title game.
PICK: North Carolina (-14) to win by 14 or more points
Will Deion Sanders stay in college football after saying he ‘does not think he is built for the NFL?’
UNDERDOGS MONEYLINE
Wake Forest +120
UCF +120
Charlotte +275
BYU +250 (vs. Iowa State)
Florida +430 (@ No. 19 LSU)
Cincinnati +115
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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